what if Earth and Mars switched places?

The Sun & Earth | Rapid Temperature Forcing

we've come to what will inevitably

matter in climate discussions more than

anything else more than storm forcing

problems with models and more than one

year three year 20- or 85-year lags in

the atmosphere and ocean it's the rapid

temperature forcing of the extremes of

solar activity now on the lower end of

the scale we've already looked at the

strength of the Jets and the inflation

of the large-scale cells and how it

diminishes quickly in sunspot minima as

clouds are increasing due to the cosmic

ray nucleation but now it's time for the

other extreme and the immediate

temperature forcing in the direction of

heat we go to one of the first papers on

solar proton forcing in what I'll call

the new climate era the era of particle

forcing which began with Malthus at

Allen 2017 when the particle forcing

dataset was released

now this paper by two Harvard professors

explored how bad things on earth could

become due to a super flare on the Sun

and in the course of ultimately finding

our planet to be an extreme risk over

the long run it confirmed that extreme

solar events can create rapid heating

events in the atmosphere now while

studies on these short-term forcing due

to solar protons are rare

- excellent cases indicate warming

events that took weeks to bleed out of

the lower atmosphere after which it went

into the oceans or upper atmospheric

layers where it has the potential to lag

later and it makes the global warming we

hear about on the news seem like small

potatoes by comparison some studies have

sought to tie these changes to UV

forcing alone the solar irradiance

implicating incredible depletions of the

ozone

now while detections of such atmospheric

chemistry do linger for weeks the full

accounting of the heating that is

observed cannot come without solar wind

particles it a sin it was a move seen

as bold and outside the norm at the time

not so much anymore with those particles

officially allowed in the IPCC climate

models by the way the zonal and vertical

winds were also noted to have changed

considerably in the 2003 event implying

those particles forcing of the global

electric circuit the

atmospheric column the Hadley and Walker

cells and the Jets again the new player

in the game now it's important to know

that the rapid heating from extreme

events are very different than the

heating or cooling you get with the

11-year sunspot cycle this has different

effects around the globe with solar

maximum usually bringing heat but still

bringing cold to some areas and while

solar minimum usually brings cold it

does bring heat to some areas and?

outside of those most extreme storms the

11-year cycle forcing we're looking at

is on the large-scale oscillations in

the Atlantic and the Pacific things like

the ammo PDO El Nino Nao these also do

cause localized regions to experience

the opposite trends of what the rest of

the world is seeing we know that with

those oscillations now it's just a

strengthening of them we get from the

Sun an example of cold coming with solar

maximum is found in southern China where

precipitation increases in late winter

due to those large-scale forcing

including on the Asian monsoon in the

jet stream and they add snow and a bit

of albedo forcing to the region to

sprinkle some extra chill on them

sunspot maximum winters end of course on

the whole the studies that exist do show

the statistical correlation in most

parts of the world as direct heating

with solar maximum cooling with solar

minimum although how much of that can be

attributed to those large scale

modulations and how much to direct

particle forcing especially in those

extreme events remain a mystery those

hundreds of studies throughout the years

have succeeded in presenting the

correlation and getting published but

always fell short of both proving how

ultraviolet light could account for this

forcing and of making their way into the

official climate models perhaps the

former is the cause of the latter of

course now that they are allowed in the

VIP they're bringing a few friends with

them to be honest I always thought the

missing piece of the puzzle would be

found by proving Joule heating from the

protons and electrons and then it would

be forced to come into the models right

now the ozone effect and the atmospheric

chemistry is the reason they're there

they are the main course that they're

going to take in this first

experience they have with the IPCC but

now that they are allowed in the models

it is up to the scientists to use them

new tools to adjust attribution modeling

of those forcing again they are allowed

in the game but are still somewhat

handcuffed in the models with the full

omen dynamics and global electric

circuit left unsure they'll get called

onto the field at all this next round

now as it is this will still produce a

measurable attribution changes in the

modeling but the full realization of

solar plasma climate forcing will not

come until the full effect of solar

protons Van Allen electrons and the

excitations of the Earth's magnetic

field and atmospheric electricity are

fully understood these Harvard

professors tried to do two things on the

heels of the official release of the

solar particle dataset they wanted to

draw attention to the potential

cataclysm that will unfold when the sun

shifts into that rare sixth gear again

but also, they wanted to express the

multi degree short term particle forcing

that is not only missing from the models

but if we recall from Episode one of

this series and from the full movie they

blame that forcing on humans because for

all the extra input of energy and

excitation of the Earth's existing

energetic systems the models show

negative solar forcing in the irradiance

data during the most extreme events and

as a reminder that means that the real

solar effect is not attributed properly

the real climate effects are blamed on

human forcing and since there are

actually, a tiny and false data drop

registered they actually take the human

forcing up a bit higher to account for

it these events heat the world and it

counts as human forcing plus whipped

cream on top let's remember the period

of global warming in the second half of

the 1900s saw twice the CMEs as the

prior period and the last 20 years this

is a tremendous amount of solar forcing

that is unaccounted for and blamed on

humans we are nearing the end of the

atmospheric lag from the grand solar

maximum of the entire Holocene there is

still OC Anak lagif to go which will

manifest as strong El Nino releases of

that heat into the atmosphere but

also, will help melt water in the North

and South Atlantic to chill and

desalinate the sea and began the trend

the other way all series episodes are

linked below along with the full movie

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see you in the morning be safe everyone